What is the future role for traditional publishers?

I came across an interesting blog post recently, that talked about the mistakes publishers are making in the digital age, in particular, the use of the ipad.

And in the Amanda Hocking era of self-publishing success without having a book contract with a publisher, do the publishers have a role? What is it? Can they be profitable?

In this pdf, J.A. Konrath and Barry Eisler discuss the success of ebooks and the rejection by Eisler of a 500k book deal.

If this is the sign of the times, it makes fiscal sense for well-known authors to self-publish ebooks since they can get a 70% royalty of what they sell. In fact, why WOULD a Dean Koontz or Dan Brown continue with regular publishers when their loyal readers will pay for ebooks that could largely go into the authors pocket, FASTER than the slow process of the traditional route?

The number one answer is an unnatural attachment to the paper form. Eventually, these people will die out, and like in the above pdf, the analogy given is with candles. "Originally, candlemakers were in the lighting business; today, they're in the candlelight business." In other words, publishers will publish paper books, but the main business of selling books will be digital. (for the record, I still love paper books, and right now, a paperback is still a superior mode of reading at the beach where I would hesitate to bring my ipad)

Number two reason: You want to make a movie based on your book. Some ebooks have been optioned, and that market is growing. However, getting a book deal legitimizes you, and activates the "trollers" who look for books that would make great movies. Most authors make a living, not on book sales, but on movie options on their books. I think that movie producers will look for ebooks with high sales, and still use publishers as a guide for quality work. In other words, unless you are Amanda Hocking, you won't get your ebook noticed for a movie deal, you will need to go the traditional route.

If you are a popular author who isn't attached to a professionally published book, and doesn't care about the movie business, it makes sense to self-publish by ebooking. (yes, I made that term up)

So, if I extrapolate logical behavior of popular authors, then in five years 80% of the well-known authors will self-publish some or all of their work in ebook format. Who will be left for publishers? What will their role be?

Publishers will need to keep popular authors by giving added value. This can include editing, marketing, and a superior quality printed book, plus a MUCH larger cut of digital sales. If publishers carefully vet their authors and put out high quality books, consumers will recognize a traditional publisher as one worth "the risk" of a purchase. And if self-pub ebooks are on average $2/book price, traditional publishers could charge twice that and justify it.

As mentioned by Dr. Brenner, they don't charge twice that. They charge five or ten times that. Which is ridiculous.

If, hypothetically, 80% of popular authors go rogue, then the role of traditional publishers will be to find rising stars. Would a reader risk reading a new book by an unknown author that has no track record? If they have a large online presence, possibly. Otherwise, the publisher throwing their weight around could likely inspire confidence and thus, a purchase.

Would this mean publishers would lose so much money as to not be viable? Unlikely. If the model is mostly digital, then the costs to publish are nearly nothing. With low cost books, more people can and will buy them, increasing the market size. And clever publishers could create added value in these digital books by association with their "name."

In other words, if publishers adapt, they will survive and flourish, admittedly with a slightly different role as they serve now. If they don't adapt, they will die. And quickly.